Friday 07/17/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday 07/17/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...
-------------------------------------------------------------------

FYI, let's limit the comps to the first 2 pages, I need this thread to be utilized for chatter and what games members would like to pick up or split. Service thread getting way to much chatter. Ty.

<!-- / message -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (-114, 9.5)

This one figures to keep runners crossing home plate all night.

The Brewers over/under record on the road is 24-18 and the team has yet to settle on its pitching rotation for the second half of the season. Cincinnati’s over/under record is 20-19-1 at home. This number is especially impressive, since the Reds are one of the worst hitting teams in baseball, but at least a little better at home.

The teams have played eight times this year, with the number going over the total five times. In those eight matchups, the teams have averaged nearly a combined 11 runs per game.

Add in the fact the Brewers are starting Jeff Suppan (4.70 ERA) and the Reds are trotting out Bronson Arroyo (5.38 ERA), and this game seems destined to be a slugfest.

Pick: Over


Philadelphia Phillies at Florida Marlins (+112, 8.5)

Philadelphia might not be able to win much in its own park this season, but the Phillies have had no trouble getting the “W” in south Florida this year.

The Phillies are 3-0 in Miami this season and are an NL-best 26-15. Philadelphia, which averages more than 5.6 runs per game on the road, also has won six of the past eight meetings with the Marlins.

Florida enters the game having split its past 10 games and touting a discouraging run differential of minus-13. The Marlins also have scored more than five runs just once in their past six home games.

Philadelphia should have an edge on the mound with Cole Hamels opposing the streaky Ricky Nolasco. The Phillies should be disappointed if they don’t take three of four in this series.

Pick: Phillies

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Streaking and Slumping Pitchers

Streaking

Felix Hernandez (Seattle Mariners)

It’s tough to find negatives about King Felix.

The 23-year-old right-hander ranks in the top 10 in the AL in wins, strikeouts, ERA, innings pitched and WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched). He has lasted at least 6 1-3 innings in each start since May 19 and has allowed more than two earned runs only once during that span.

In his most recent outing, a 3-1 win over Texas, Hernandez yielded only one earned run on three hits in eight innings while striking out eight. If Hernandez (9-3, 2.53 ERA) can improve his command – he averages two walks per start – he will be a legit Cy Young candidate.

“Just the way he's been taking the mound, I can't say enough about him,” Seattle manager Don Wakamatsu told the Associated Press. “He's at the top of his game right now, and probably as good as anybody in the game."

A.J. Burnett (New York Yankees)

CC may still be the big initials in the Yankees staff, but fans who follow the Bombers know it's Burnett who has emerged as the team’s ace.

Burnett (8-4, 3.77 ERA) has yielded two or fewer runs in each of his past five starts, going at least six innings each time out. In his most recent start, a 4-3 win over Minnesota, he allowed just two earned runs on seven hits in 6 1-3 innings.

Burnett’s biggest flaw is his control – he leads the AL with 53 walks. If he ever gets his location under control, his strikeout total of 101 Ks would soar.

"When you're clicking, everything just flows," Burnett told reporters. "When you're clicking on pitches, you don't even think about anything. You know, it's just all confidence out there."


Slumping

Tomo Ohka (Cleveland Indians)

It shouldn’t take Ohka long to find his way back to the bullpen.

After getting obliterated in two starts in late June – a 7-3 loss to the Reds and a 6-5 defeat at the hands of the Cubs – Ohka was demoted to the bullpen before getting pushed back into the rotation last week.

But that decision already seems questionable after Ohka (0-3, 6.40) picked up a 10-1 loss against the Tigers right before the All-Star break. Ohka lasted just 3 2-3 innings while giving up five earned runs on five hits, including a pair of gopher balls.

"My fastball was up," Ohka said. "I felt OK, but I kept making bad pitches."


Debuting

Clay Buchholz (Boston Red Sox)

The 24-year-old hurler has spent the entire season in Triple-A after a disasterous 2008 that saw the right-hander finish 2-9 with a 6.75 ERA.

Buchholz will make his season debut on Friday in part to a hole in the team's rotation and also because of the phenomenal numbers he put up in Pawtucket. He figures to have a hard time breaking into the team’s rotation, however if he has a solid outing against one of the better hitting teams in the majors, Buchholz could find himself with an extended stay at Fenway Park.

“I want him to live up to some of the things that he’s capable of doing,” Red Sox pitcher Josh Beckett told the Boston Herald. “I don’t want him to have to go through injuries and stuff like that to learn. I know I had to do that. Anytime you can catch things before they happen, that’s good.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB weekend cheat sheet

The MLB All-Star Game is in the history books after the American League extended its domination over the National League.

Interestingly, history tells us the first set of games following the All-Star break generally do not play to form. Perhaps it’s a case of the players re-acclimating themselves to the daily grind, or it’s momentum – good or bad – that came to a halt.

Whatever the case, it’s best to be cautious this first weekend back.

That being the case, it might serve you well to look fade the best and worst trendsetters from the first half of the campaign from this point forward.

According the cov.com website, the top two money earners the first half of the season were the Los Angeles Dodgers ($1937) and the (Los Angeles Angels ($1224). The biggest money burners have been the Washington Nationals (-$2969) and the Cleveland Indians (-$2329).

The best home teams were the San Francisco Giants ($1363) and the Detroit Tigers ($1085). The worst home efforts were turned in by the Arizona Diamondbacks (-$1615) and the Cleveland Indians (-$1277).

On the pitching front, Los Angeles Angels’ Matt Palmer ($1064) and Boston Red Sox’ Tim Wakefield ($922) have been the best at making deposits while Colorado Rockies’ Ubaldo Jimenez (-$733) and Kansas City Royals’ Gil Meche (-$708) have set the pace on the opposite end.

Our best guess is that the teams and pitchers named above will likely come back to the norm. Keep an eye on them and judge for yourself.

With that we’ll play cautious and take a look the top two series on tap in both circuits this weekend. Remember, all results are within the series and all pitcher records are team starts (the team’s record in games in which the pitcher starts) versus this opponent.

National League

Philadelphia Phillies at Florida Marlins

Most recent series result: Phillies 6-2 in last eight games (4-2 this season).

Most Recent series result at location: Phillies 5-0 in last five games (3-0 this season) away.

Key day/month stat: Phillies 17-4 Sundays.

Best arm in the series: Phillies’ Blanton 3-0, 3.16 ERA career.

Worst arm in the series: Phillies’ Hamels 0-4, 3.81 ERA away career.


American League

Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees

Most recent series result: Yankees 4-1 in last five games.

Most recent series result at the site: Tigers 3-0 in last three games away.

Best arm in the series: Tigers’ Verlander 5-1, 4.98 ERA career starts; Yankees’ Pettite 5-1, 2.62 ERA last five home at home.

Worst arm in the series: Tigers’ Jackson 0-4, 7.05 ERA last four starts.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB series of the week: Tigers at Yankees

Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees

Season series

New York took two of three at Comerica Park in late April. Ironically, Detroit’s lone win was against Yankees ace CC Sabathia. The Yankees totaled 19 runs (to Detroit’s six) while winning the final two games of the series.

In the middle game, the Bombers broke up a scoreless game by scoring 10 runs in the seventh inning.

The Yankees’ Alex Rodriguez was still on the disabled list when these two met the first time.

Detroit swept the Yankees three games last year in the Bronx for the franchise’s first three-game sweep in New York since 1966. But the Tigers are still just 9-21 in the past 30 games visiting the Yanks, although this will be their first chance at the new homer-happy Yankee Stadium.

The pitchers

Before the All-Star break, Tigers manager Jim Leyland said he would set his rotation with aces Edwin Jackson and Justin Verlander pegged for the final two games of this series.

Leyland broke up Verlander and Jackson from pitching in back-to-back games in June so he could help his bullpen, but admitted he wasn’t sure if he would continue that in the second half.

Friday

Detroit (Luke French, 1-0, 1.93) at New York (A.J. Burnett, 8-4, 3.77)

The rookie French has made two starts this year, winning his last time against Zack Greinke and the Royals. In Burnett’s final start before the break, he held the Twins to two runs in 6 1-3 innings for the victory. Since May 27, Burnett is 6-2 with a 2.01 ERA. He didn’t pitch against Detroit earlier this year.

Saturday

Detroit (Justin Verlander, 10-4, 3.38) at New York (CC Sabathia, 8-6, 3.86)

Verlander reached 10 wins by All-Star break for third time in four seasons and is on pace to exceed his career-high in innings by about 40. He got the lone win in the early-season series with New York, beating Sabathia. Verlander blanked New York for seven innings, striking out nine.

Sabathia, meanwhile, allowed four runs on eight innings that day. The big lefty is just 1-2 with a 5.59 ERA in three July starts. New York is just 9-10 in his starts this year.

Sunday

Detroit (Edwin Jackson, 7-4, 2.52) at New York (Joba Chamberlain, 4-2, 4.25)

Jackson shut down the National League in order during the fifth inning of the All-Star Game, throwing just four pitches. He beat the Indians in his final start before the break, ending a five-start winless streak.

Chamberlain’s longest outing this season came against Detroit on April 29. Joba allowed just one run in seven innings for his first win of the year and first victory since July 30, 2008. But Chamberlain was bombed by the Jays and Angels in his two final pre-break starts.

Tigers’ outfield platoon

If Leyland sticks to his plans to platoon Clete Thomas and Magglio Ordonez in right field, then Ordonez would only start this series against the lefty Sabathia.

Thomas, meanwhile, is 7-for-13 since being recalled from Triple-A last week. He finished Sunday’s win over Cleveland with a career-high five RBIs and a double short of the cycle.

"I'm seeing the ball pretty good," Thomas said.

Ordonez, a career .300 hitter, is batting .260, his lowest average since he began playing full-time in 1997. He also has just four homers.

Leyland is hoping this platoon gets Mags going; a four-game benching in mid-June didn’t do the trick.

Watching from home

Alex Rodriguez missed his first All-Star Game since 1999 after not being selected. He spent the time working with a rehab specialist on his hip and with his daughters.

A-Rod has been streaking of late: In the final 17 games before the All-Star break, Rodriguez batted .373 while knocking out eight dingers and driving in 22 runs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Lady Luck: Today's WNBA best bets

Atlanta Dream at Indiana Fever (-7.5, 152)

The hottest team in the WNBA continue to roll. The Fever's 84-74 victory over Chicago marked their 10th straight after dropping the first two games of the season.

Indiana is paced by All-Star starters Tamika Catchings – the league’s leading vote-getter – and Katie Douglas. The team is so deep, both Catchings and center Tammy Brown-Sutton have been named Eastern Conference Players of the Week this season. The Fever also are a staggering 9-3 against the spread (ATS), including 6-2 ATS at home.

Meantime, Atlanta is a respectable 4-3 ATS on the road, but just 2-5 SU. In an earlier trip to Indiana this season, the Dream held tough before falling, 78-74. It won’t be as close this time.

Pick: Fever


Connecticut Sun at San Antonio Silver Stars (-4.5, 143)

It appears the Sun are picking a good time to rise. Following an 82-71 win over the Sparks on Tuesday, the Sun again find themselves among a pack of teams vying for second place in the East. The team is winning its games thanks to a stingy defense that is allowing just 71 points per game, the fourth-lowest total in the league.

On offense, the Sun are paced by Ashja Jones (16.9 pg, 5.9 rpg), who has led the team in scoring in seven of the past 10 games. In a 71-58 beatdown of San Antonio on June 21, Jones dropped a team-high 19.

The Silver Stars counter with the dynamic duo of Becky Hammon (19.5 ppg) and Sophia Young (17.5 ppg), but still have just the 11th-ranked offense in the league, averaging barley over 72 points a game.

Pick: Sun

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trend Report

Friday, July 17

9:00 PM
TORONTO vs. CALGARY
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Calgary
Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Calgary
Calgary is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Calgary is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Canadian Bacon: Week 3 CFL predictions

Friday, July 17

Toronto Argonauts (1-1) at Calgary Stampeders (0-2) -7.5, 55

The Stampeders have been atrocious so far this season. Their offense has struggled, but should get back on track against the weakest defense in the East.

Expect the Argos to take advantage of Calgary’s difficulties containing the running game. The Stampeders are dead last in the CFL in stopping the run.

The Alouettes and the Blue Bombers piled up 319 yards on the ground against the Stamps in the first two games of 2009. Jamal Robertson, Toronto’s lead running back, gained 214 yards rushing in two games, averaging close to nine yards per carry.

Despite all that, I’m still picking the home side. I can’t see a Calgary team this talented starting the campaign 0-3.

Pick: Calgary

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bob Harvey

Colorado Rockies (-144)
Fri Jul 17 '09 10:05p

I’m a firm believer in the old adage: "if it isn’t broke, don’t fix it". That’s why we’re heading back to San Diego for Friday night's Bonus Play on Ubaldo Jiminez and the Rockies.

Last night things went perfect for Colorado backers as the Rockies rolled to a 10-1 victory as Aaron Cook earned his 9th win and Seth Smith and Clint Barmes both homered. San Diego has now lost eight of its last nine games and outside of a 10-4 victory over San Francisco in the final game before the all-star break they’ve struggled to score averaging almost 2.5 runs per game. That won’t get it done.

Colorado is now 30-13 since Jim Tracy took over as manager and they’ve been a real cash cow especially on the road. The Rockies are 6th best in the majors with a 25-22 record and +979 units.

On the flip side San Diego doesn’t have much going for it right now. The Padres are 8-22 in their last 30 games and 36-53 overall. They’ve played better at home posting a 23-21 record but the problem is scoring. They average just 3.7 runs per game. San Diego ranks 30th in runs per game, batting average and OPS.

Colorado is 6-3 on the season against San Diego and has taken two out of three games in American’s finest city.

The Rockies are now eight games behind the first-place Dodgers and just a game and a half behind the wild-card leading Giants.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

(957) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
(958) FLORIDA MARLINS
Take "(957) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES"

The Phillies went into the break hot and stayed that way with a convincing 4-0 win over the Marlins Thursday night. Cole Hamels has been very erratic, but with the Phils in great form, tonight's price seems pretty reasonable. I'll back the Phillies to top the Marlins again.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

(973) MINNESOTA TWINS
(974) TEXAS RANGERS
Take "(973) MINNESOTA TWINS"

Minnesota is only 4 out and comes in after taking 2 of 3 to the White Sox before the break. This offense is 10th in baseball and starter Glen Perkins doesn't walk anyone, and he's been hot, on a 2-1 run his last three starts with a 3.44 ERA. He loves facing Texas, at 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA against them. Tired Texas just lost 3 of 4 games to Seattle, winding up a 7-game trip. A great spot for the talented road dog. Play the Twins.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

FRIDAY GIANTS -150

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence MLB Bonus Play! - Friday
Play On: Seattle w/Hernandez
Note: The Mariners take on the Indians in Game Two of this four game series tonight when they send ace right hander Felix Hernandez to the mound at Progressive Field in Cleveland. Hernandez enters tonight game in dominating current KW form with 6 walks and 25 strikeouts in his last three starts. He's also 6-0 in his last six team starts, including 5-0 in his last five road team starts. With the Tribe off a win last night. look for Hernandez to improve to 10-3 in his last 13 team starts on Fridays here tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chris Rizzo MLB

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS -145
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS 1.5 (-110)
BOSTON RED SOX 1.5 (-168)
NEW YORK YANKEES -206
DETROIT TIGERS 1.5 (-107)
MINNESOTA TWINS 1.5 (-162)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MJP sports MLB

MILWAUKEE BREWERS 106
BOSTON RED SOX 118
DETROIT TIGERS 186

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

USA Sports Consulting - Brian Smith MLB

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -120

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LT Profits Sports Group

This posted total seems very low when you consider that Josh Geer has a 5.79 ERA in 15starts and Ubaldo Jimenez has been rather erratic lately. Go Over the low total at Petco here.
As we have stated a couple of times, posted totals this low are usually reserved for when two star pitchers face other, and while Ubaldo Jimenez of the Colorado Rockies may barely fit the bill, Josh Geer of the San Diego Padres simply does not.

Geer is 1-4 with a 5.79 ERA in 15 starts in his first full season as a Major League starter. Furthermore, after showing some improvement for a while, he regressed again in his last start when he was roughed up for six earned runs in just 4.2 innings by the normally light-hitting San Francisco Giants. Geer was also hit hard the last time he faced the Rockies, as they reached him for six runs (five earned) in 6.2 innings.

Now Jimenez does have a nice 3.81 ERA despite his 6-9 record, but he has been rather inconsistent lately, alternating Quality Starts and non-quality outings in his last seven starts, putting him in line for a shaky outing tonight. More importantly, the Padres got to Jimenez for six earned runs in only 3.2 innings the last time he faced them here in Petco Park.

There are simply to many question marks for both of these starters for us not to go Over this very low total tonight.

Free Pick: Rockies, Padres Over 7½ (-115)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rob Vinciletti

San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

San Francisco Giants -145

On Friday night the Bonus Play is on the Sanfrancisco Giants.Game 953 at 7:05 eastern.The Giants have their ace on the mound tonight in Pittsburgh.Tim Lincecume takes the mound 2 days after his all-star start which served as nothing more than his bullpen work.The Giants have won over 80% of his starts when they are entering off a loss.Lincecum has been nothing less than spectacular this year with a stellar 2.22 road era.In his last 3 starts his era is an incredible 1.19.For the Pirates its lefty P.Malholm.In his last 3 starts he has not fared nearly as well as his hard throwing counter part.Malholm has a 5.19 era over his last three.The Pirates have really struggled scoring of late.Over their last 7 games they were hitting just .187 and averaging 2.6 runs per game.Those stats do not figure to improve tonight.The Pirates are just 3-10 on Fridays compared to the Giants 10-4 mark.Pittsburgh has started July losing 9 of the first 11 games.The Giants are 3-1 after allowing 10 or more runs.Finally to tighten this play up with another cutting edge system.We play against home dogs off a road dog loss that scored 2 or less runs,if tonights opponent is off a home favored loss and scored 4 runs or less.These home dogs have lost 17 of 20 times in the above system.For the Friday night late phone play its the release of the 5 Unit MLB Revenge Game of the Year.Backed with a lethal 18-1 system that wins by nearly 4 runs per game.Our side will be super motivated for this one.

For the Bonus Play take the Sanfrancisco Giants.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

OAK (+110) vs ANA

Member Play: A great value play on the home team here; Angels starter Joe Saunders (8-5, 4.65 ERA) will try to put aside his poor finish to the first half of the season. Saunders went 0-1 with an 11.57 ERA in his last three outings, giving up five runs over five innings last Friday in a 10-6 victory over the New York Yankees. Trevor Cahill has also struggled for the A's, however Oakland is an above average 7-6 (+1.2 units) as a home dog of +100 to +125.

Play on OAKLAND!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rocky Atkinson

Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics

Los Angeles Angels -111

LA Angels @ Oakland 10:05 PM EST

Play On: LA Angels (Saunders/Cahill) Listed

LA Angels are now 49-37 overall this year while Oakland comes in with a 37-49 overall record this season. Oakland is 22-41 in July the past 3 years. Oakland is 14-32 this year when playing against a team with a winning record. LA Angels have won 4 in a row heading into tonight. Oakland is scoring only 3.8 runs per game against left handed starters this year and their batting average is only .227. Joe Saunders is 8-5 overall this year. Trevor Cahill is 0-3 with an 11.37 ERA his last 3 starts. Saunders is 7-2 with a 3.77 ERA overall vs Oakland since 1997.
We'll recommend a small play on the LA Angels tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky